Powder Blue Report

News, finance, politics, sports, and fun from the west coast

Monday, October 31, 2005

Bush Comes Through Finally

I have to admit that I have not had to many warm fuzzy feelings for President Bush lately. Having said that, it's time to give him some credit for dropping errr I mean Miers withdrawing and him nominating Sam Alito of the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals. I don't know why he choose Miers first(actually I do know[cronyism],but I digress), but almost all conservatives are happy with this pick. Bush realized that his was hemmorhaging his base and he needed to get back to basics. While he's at it maybe he can drop his amnesty plan and make some spending cuts. Perish the thought. Oh well, I'm just happy that I have something to be happy about with this administration now.

Sunday, October 30, 2005

New SCOTUS Nominee By Tomorrow

My educated guess is Sam Alito of the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals. I think Bush will finally go with the conventional wisdom on this one. If it's not Alito then I would hope for Michael Luttig. Either of these gentlemen would be a great justice. My guess is that the name will be released early tomorrow morning.

Orange County And The US's Ticking Time Bombs

Everyone must read todays article on pension reform by Roger Lowenstein. With the debate heating up for Measure D here in Orange County and Governor Schwarzenegger's slate of propositions, everyone needs to understand why it is so important to have pension reform right now.

Here are a couple of good quotes from the article....." America's pension system has been a laboratory demonstration of moral hazard in which the insurance may end up bankrupting the system it was intended to save Given that pension promises do not come due for years, it is hardly surprising that corporate executives and state legislators have found it easier to pay off unions with benefits tomorrow rather than with wages today. Since the benefits were insured, union leaders did not much care if the obligations proved excessive. During the previous decade especially, when it seemed that every pension promise could be fulfilled by a rising stock market, employers either recklessly overpromised or recklessly underprovided - or both - for the commitments they made"......

"In San Diego, pension abuse has effectively bankrupted the city. Thanks to a history of granting sweeter and sweeter pension deals that it has neglected to fund, the city has been forced to allocate $160 million, or 8 percent of the municipal budget, to the San Diego City Employees Retirement System this year, with similar allocations expected for years to come. San Diego has tabled plans for a downtown library, cut back the hours on swimming pools, gutted the parks and recreation budget, canceled needed water and sewer projects and fallen behind on potholes"...

"Because the employer is committed to paying a certain level of benefits, pensions are known as "defined benefit" plans."..."A 401(k), on the other hand, promises nothing. It's merely a license to defer taxes - an individual savings plan. The employer might contribute some money, which is why 401(k)'s are known as "defined contribution" plans. Or it might not. Even if the company does contribute, it offers no assurance that the money will be enough to retire on, nor does it get involved with managing the account; that's up to the worker"

"California is a good example of the political forces that have driven benefits higher. In the 90's, Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat who was strongly supported by public-employee unions, pushed through numerous bills to increase benefits. One raised the pension of state troopers retiring at age 50 to 3 percent of final salary times the number of years served. (Previously, the formula was 2 percent at age 50, more if you were older.) Thus, a cop hired at age 20 could retire at 50, find another job and get a pension equal to 90 percent of his final salary....According to Barclay's Global Investors, if you use realistic assumptions, the total underfunding in all public plans is on the order of $460 billion. If this figure is even close to true, future taxpayers will be hopelessly in hock to the police, firefighters and teachers of the past"

"Earlier this year, Schwarzenegger tried to move California to a 401(k)-style defined contribution plan (for new employees), but the Legislature refused to go along. Schwarzenegger has vowed to revisit the issue in 2006. This battle is being fought from statehouse to statehouse. Michigan (mimicking Alaska) has closed its pension plan to some new employees, and various states, including Florida, Colorado, South Carolina, Arizona, Ohio and Montana, are taking a partial step of letting employees choose between defined contribution plans and traditional pensions. This compromise does not really change much. Most employees who are given the choice opt, quite naturally, to keep their pensions."

Saturday, October 29, 2005

How Bout' Them Bruins

Everytime I think there's no way in hell the Bruins can comeback from being down, they keep surprising me. They were down 24-3 today up in Palo Alto versus Stanford and they scored three straight touchdowns in the fourth quarter to tie the score and then they won the game in overtime. I can't take much more of this. They are the cardiac Bruins. They are now 8-0 and headed to the desert next Saturday to play Arizona. One game at a time I keep telling myself. What if they win their next two games and then play USC for a chance at a national championship on December 3rd. How awesome would that game be? Stayed tuned.

Friday, October 28, 2005

Restore Hetch Hetchy Valley

Hetch Hetchy Valley circa 1900

Hetch Hetchy today

As I was sitting at home last night channel surfing, I came across one of favorite PBS shows out here in socal. It's called California's Gold hosted by the folksy Huell Howser. The topic of the show was the Hetch Hetchy Valley up near Yosemite National Park. Hetch Hetchy rivals the beauty of Yosemite. I haven't been up there since I was a kid, but suffice to say that it is one of our most beautiful valleys in the country. Tragically it was damned up back in 1913 to provide a steady source of water for the bay area. The Sierra Club founder and uber naturalist John Muir called Hetch Hetchy Valley "the second Yosemite and one of nature's rarest and most precious mountain temples" and he fought the damning of the Tuolomne river tooth and nail. Alas though Woodrow Wilson signed the Raker Act into law in 1913 and the damning the river began. It was said that Muir died in 1914 of a broken heart. This is an issue that everyone can get behind. There is no more need for the damn today. The water can be stored downstream at the huge New Don Pedro reservoir.

There is a grassroots effort underway to restore the Hetch Hetchy Valley today. People of all political idealogies can get behind this effort. Here is the website. I'm not a big fan of the Sierra Club on a lot of issues but this one that deserves merit. The valley should be restored to its original condition so everyone can enjoy it. They say it would probably take a few years for it to get back to normal. That's fine with me. Just drain the water from the lake and blow that damn up.

Thursday, October 27, 2005

Thank You Harriett

I want to thank Harriett Miers for doing the country, President Bush and herself a big favor. She has decided to withdrawl her name from contention to the SCOTUS. It was obvious that this pick was not the best choice available. That kool-aid that the Bush apologists were drinking(Hugh Hewitt et al)must taste like like vinegar right about now. That's what they get for putting party above principle. I want to look forward now and not look back. Bush has a chance to finally nominate the best person for the job regardless of gender, race, etc. For his sake I hope he nominates someone that all conservatives can rally around i.e. Luttig, McConnell, Jones, Janice Rogers Brown, etc. Let this be his opportunity to turn over a new leaf and govern as a true conservative. May he start cutting spending, cracking down on illegal immigration, making the tax cuts permanent, and start governing like he said he would when he campaigned. He is not a lame duck yet, but he will be if he doesn't get the show on the road.

Monday, October 24, 2005

Polling For The 48th CD Runoff Race

I just got polled by some Houston based outfit named Promark Research. The gal who called me actually was speaking to me from their Idaho call center in Rexburg. The poor gal sounded dyslexic on the phone and she was having a lot of trouble reading the script. It was obviously a Campbell paid for poll. Memo to Dave Gilliard: make sure the next time you hire a market research company, you make sure the callers are able to read and speak English at a third grade level. John Campbell is paying you top dollar for your expertise and he deserves better value. It's just a little friendly advice. Now on to some of the questions. One of the first ones was:

1. Are you voting for the Republican or Democratic nominee? Answer: I'm voting for the Independent candidate
2. Do you approve or disapprove the way George Bush is doing his job? Answer: I strongly disapprove
3. Who did you vote for President in 2004? Answer: George Bush
4. What is your opinion on these names?
a. John Campbell? answer: somewhat approve
b. Jim Gilchrist? answer: strongly approve
c. Steve Young? answer: strongly disapprove
d. George W. Bush? answer: strongly disapprove
e. Arnold Schwarzenegar? answer: strongly approve
5. What is the most important issue for you? answer border security/illegal immigration
6. Do you know what date the special runoff election is? answer: yes, Dec 6th
7. What news have you heard about John Campbell or Jim Gilchrist lately? answer: blah, blah, blah....next qustion
8. Does it make you more likely to vote for John Campbell if you knew he was a leader in Sacramento on the fight for people to use their property however they want(obviously a reference to the recent Kelo decision)? answer: no difference. Campbell actually benefited from eminent domaining of someone else's property as we now know.
9. Does it make you more likely to vote for John Campbell if you knew he was a leader in Sacramento to reign in trial attorneys? answer: who cares, every good conservative is for that, duh.
10. After hearing these accomplishments of John Campbell, who are you going to vote for on Dec 6th? answer: Jim Gilchrist
11. The last few questions were about how much household $$$ we make(over 100k....who doesn't make over 100k in OC these days? How can they afford the cost of living in OC if they don't?), highest education level completed(college drop out), are you a home owner(yes), etc.

We Have a New Maestro At The Federal Reserve...

His name is Ben Bernanke and he will be the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board when Alan Greenspan's term expires in January. He has some big shoes to fill to be sure. Greenspan sold out a long time ago. He used to be a strict devotee of a gold-backed monetary system, but then he became Chairman of the Fed. If I had my way, there would be no Federal Reserve Bank. It is unconstitutional in my opinion. There is a great history of national banks ruining countries economies because of their inherit knack for inflating the currency and adding choas to the monetary system. There has been some great books written on this subject over the years as well. One of the best ones on the history of federal reserve banks was written by G. Edward Griffin titled "The Creature From Jekyll Island". Take a look at it if you get a chance.

Saturday, October 22, 2005

UCLA vs The OSU Beavers Tonight

I have to admit, if you would have told me that my beloved gutty little Bruins of UCLA were going to start the season off with six straight wins, I would have told you to go back and keep smoking whatever you were smoking. But here we are in the middle of October and the Bruins are actually in the hunt for the national championship. They're doing this all with no defense really to speak of, but with one hell of an offense led by Maurice Drew and Drew Olsen. They pulled out another come from behind win last week vs Washington St. This week will be another good test. Oregon St is a tough football team. They are led by former Bruin quarterback Matt Moore who transferred to OSU after losing his starting job to Drew Olsen his sophmore year. I'm sure he has a bit of a chip on his shoulder still. It should be a good game.

Friday, October 21, 2005

Last Night's Irvine Republican Council Meeting

I want to finally give some props to John Campbell's campaign team. Someone(Chris Palmer) from his staff finally decided to show up at our meeting. It makes sense for them because Irvine is the anchor of the 48th CD. I thanked Chris from the bottom of my heart for finally showing up. I asked him point blank if Campbell would pledge 100% not to vote for Amnesty(McCain Kennedy bill). He said unequivically that John would vote against it. I guess we'll see. I still think Campbell will cave on this. Time will tell.

We also talked about the upcoming special election in November. Irvine has 108 precints and we have volunteer walkers for almost each one. Right now the polls say that all the props are passing, but you can never be satisfied. The union thugs have a lot of money left to spend and they will spend it on negative ads. When the last union dues prop was on the ballot in 1998(prop 226), it was winning like 60-40 a month before the election. Alas it lost by like four points on election day.

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Happy 95th Birthday To Coach John Wooden

Former UCLA hall of fame basketball coach John Wooden turned 95 years old a few days ago on October 14th. I wasn't even born yet and this guy was busy winning ten NCAA championships in basketball. It is a record that IMO will never be broken. ESPN had a great tribute to the coach the last few nights. Click here for the link. I just want to wish coach Wooden a happy birthday myself. He was truly a giant in the world of sports. I have read all his books and met him in person a couple of times. It was a thrill to get to meet him and listen to his timeless wisdom on life and sports. Happy birthday coach from a loyal Bruin fan.

Wall Street Journal Strikes A Blow Against Campbell

I've always liked the Wall Street Journal. I like them even more after Miriam Jordan's story this morning on the race for the 48th CD. She portrayed Campbell as a tool of big business(which he is and will be). He'll get to Washington and will fit right in with the Georgetown cocktail party circuit, but he'll vote to give away the farm on illegal immigration. Does anyone really believe that Campbell will stand up to George Bush & Karl Rove? If you believe that then I got some beachfront property in Arizona to sell you as George Strait would say. It's a good piece of journalism. Compare this to the gutter politics that Campbell is playing and you have yourself a nice contrast of who would represent the people's view in this district the best.

Monday, October 17, 2005

The Final Straw

This is a fine article by Bruce Bartlett(no relation). It pretty much sums up what most movement conservatives are feeling.

The final straw
By Bruce Bartlett

Oct 18, 2005

The White House appears to have been truly blindsided by the vehemently negative response from conservative intellectuals to the nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court. In truth, this is a revolt that has been long in the making. The surprising thing is that it has taken such a long time for it to come out into the open.

The truth that is now dawning on many movement conservatives is that George W. Bush is not one of them and never has been. They were allies for a long time, to be sure, and conservatives used Bush just as he used them. But it now appears that they are headed for divorce. And as with all divorces, the ultimate cause was not the final incident, but the buildup of grievances over a long period that one day could no longer be overlooked, contained or smoothed over.

From the conservative point of view, the list of grievances is a long one, dating back to the first days of the Bush administration.

One of President Bush's first actions in office was a vast expansion of education spending with little real reform in return. To conservatives, it has always looked like a transparent effort to buy off the so-called soccer moms. But rather than buy peace with the education lobby, it has simply led to continuous calls for still more education spending, despite the paucity of evidence correlating spending with achievement.
Almost all conservatives view campaign finance reform as a blatantly unconstitutional abridgement of the First Amendment, the Supreme Court's endorsement notwithstanding. Now it may end up being used to suppress blogs and other new media that have been critical for conservatives in breaking the liberal monopoly of the mainstream press.
It is the rare conservative who has a kind word for the Bush immigration policy. Most conservatives think that he has been woefully weak on protecting our borders. Among the grassroots of the Republican Party, there is active hostility to administration plans to allow illegal immigrants to have guest-worker status. Most see this as a form of amnesty that will further encourage illegal immigration.
Even leaving aside national defense and homeland security, government spending has exploded during the Bush years. Although the vast proliferation of pork-barrel spending, which President Bush steadfastly refuses to veto, has gotten most of the attention, far more worrisome has been the expansion of entitlements, especially the extraordinarily ill-conceived Medicare drug benefit. In future years, Republicans will rue the day they passed this legislation, because they are eventually going to have to cut it, thereby losing all the political benefits they thought they would get among the elderly.
Government regulation got a big boost from passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley bill, which Republicans rushed through Congress to deflect criticism over the Enron scandal. But the fact is that nothing in the legislation would have prevented Enron's financial abuses -- a fact proven by a new scandal involving stockbroker Refco, which appears to have engaged in Enron-style financial shenanigans that are now being investigated by authorities.
I could go on, but the point is that George W. Bush has never demonstrated any interest in shrinking the size of government. And on many occasions, he has increased government significantly. Yet if there is anything that defines conservatism in America, it is hostility to government expansion. The idea of big government conservatism, a term often used to describe Bush's philosophy, is a contradiction in terms.

Conservative intellectuals have known this for a long time, but looked the other way for various reasons. Some thought the war on terror trumped every other issue. If a few billion dollars had to be wasted to buy the votes needed to win the war, then so be it, many conservatives have argued. Others say that Bush never ran as a conservative in the first place, so there is no betrayal here, only a failure by conservatives to see what he has been all along.

Of course, this doesn't say much for the conservative movement. At best, conservatives were naive about Bush. At worst, they sold out much of what they claim to believe in.

The Miers nomination has led to some long-overdue soul-searching among conservative intellectuals. For many, the hope of finally turning around the judiciary was worth putting up with all the big government stuff. Thus, Bush's pick of a patently unqualified crony for a critical position on the Supreme Court was the final straw.

Had George W. Bush demonstrated more fealty to conservative principles over the last five years, he might have gotten a pass on Miers. But coming on top of all the big government initiatives he has supported, few in the conservative movement are inclined to give him the benefit of a doubt any longer.

Ted Kennedy & Water Rescues = Bad Combination

This story had me rolling today. The thought of a liquored up Senator Kennedy and another water rescue was too funny. I guess Ted tried to rescue some fishermen this past weekend out near his house in Hyannisport, but had second thoughts. He probably had some bad flashbacks of that fatefull night over 36 years ago when he drove his submarine errr car off of the Chappaquidick bridge. Better to go contact the authorities than try to be a hero I guess he was thinking. Unfortunately for Mary Jo, she had the bad luck of getting into a car with a liquored up Ted after a night of revelry.

Thursday, October 13, 2005

You Heard It Here First....Bull Market In Real Estate Is Over

The heady days of real estate appreciation are over. In fact with the price action of the bellweather 30 year bond reaching a pyschologically important 6% level today, you can expect house inventories to go up for sure. There was a major break in the support level today doing significant technical damage on the charts. Fewer people will be able to qualify for a mortgage loan with the rising rates. Mortgage applications are also declining big time right now. On top of all this, you have a Presidential commision on tax reform floating trial balloons up of severely curtailing the amount of deductable mortgage interest expense. Take a look at some important housing stocks also like Fredie Mac and Fannie Mae. The charts do NOT look good. When you add all this up, you get the picture of a market that is done going up. How far will it go back down? I wish I knew the answer, but I do know when to say uncle. Lock in a good fixed rate now or be sorry later. I hope I am proven wrong on this prediction, but the evidence says otherwise.

Thursday Thoughts

I read this morning that President Bush's approval rating is now below the 40% level. This is not shocking. The nomination of Harriett Miers is an unmitigated disaster. It is a huge unforced error to coin a tennis term. He did not have to do this. He could have nominated a solid conservative justice with a proven track record, but he made a calculated political decision to pick another female version of David Souter. Yes that's right, Miers is a female version of David Souter until written evidence proves otherwise. Bush wants us to "trust him". Let's go him one further. Let's "trust, but verify" in the words of the great one Ronald Reagan. We need evidence. The White House doesn't have it. That's why Bush is tanking in the polls. Movement conservatives are bailing on the President because he isn't much of a conservative.

You can probably guess who I think is benefiting from all this right now. That's right, Jim Gilchrist. He is a real conservative. The nomination of Miers and Bush's falling approval ratings are just making Jim's job easier to persuade the people of the 48th CD to vote for him.

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Last Night At Qualcomm Stadium

I had the opportunity to go to the Monday Night Football Game between the Chargers and the Steelers down in San Diego last night. What an experience. I hadn't been to a pro football game in over twelve years. We used to have season tickets to the Rams when I was growing up. The game was sold out and I would say that about a fourth of the fans in attendence last night were Pittsburgh fans. Did I mention that beer and belligerent fans don't mix? There had to be a fight in the stands every few minutes last night between San Diego and Pittsburgh fans. It was like watching a train wreck happen live. It was pretty funny. Oh yeah they also played a football game too and a good one it was. The Steelers beat the Chargers 24-22 on a last second field goal.

Home Depot & Day Laborers

Here's an excellent article in the NY Times about the day laborer/illegal immigration problem in the US. It speaks for itself.

Saturday, October 08, 2005

Anatomy Of A Conservative Revolt Against Bush

I thought it would appropriate since Bush is hitting new lows in his approval ratings to ask why they have broken below previous support levels. Think of the President's approval ratings like you would looking at a chart of any stock or commodity. Up until this last week, conservatives were still giving President Bush the benefit of the doubt on his leadership. We are really pissed at the deficit, the gross over-spending, illegal immigration/border security, and a few other issues. The Miers SCOTUS nomination is the proverbial straw that is breaking the camel's back now. If someone were to call and poll me right now, I would not give the President the good housekeeping seal of approval. I would tell the pollster that I strongly disapprove of the President's handling of the nations affairs right now. Again the Miers nomination has ripped open the scab that has been trying to heal, but now is bleeding profusely. The base of the party was overlooking all of the other festering issues, but now we are in open revolt. We have come so far since the Robert Bork nomination. We won all the power the last few years and now when it comes time to appoint the right kind of justices to the SC, Bush has blinked. Our greatest fear is getting "Soutered" again. We know nothing about Harriett Miers except that "Bush trusts her judgement". That is not enough. We need nominees with solid track records of being originalists.

Friday, October 07, 2005

UCLA vs The Hated Nocals of Cal Berkeley This Saturday

I'm really looking forward to this game. Both teams are undefeated for the year. My Bruins looked a little shaky versus the Washington Huskies last week, but they still pulled out a win during the last minute of the game. Cal has an excellent running attack this year led by Marshawn Lynch. This will be a good test to see if the Bruins are deserving of their top 20 ranking right now. They looked great against Oklahoma but then almost lost to Washington. Which team will show up? I really want to beat these guys. It's that whole nocal vs socal thing. We really are two different cultures. They are liberal, we are conservative(except for L.A of course). They like to hoard water and we like to steal it from them. You get the picture. It should be a fun game.

Thursday, October 06, 2005

A Shot Across The Bow To Mr. Campbell

Jim Gilchrist has raised over $200k in just the last three weeks. The money is rolling in from small donors across the country. We will raise over a million dollars for this two month cycle. Take that Mr Muth. That will be plenty along with all the free earned media to go up against the Campbell GOP machine. Oh and the nastiness from Campbell is on its way to high propensity GOP voters all over the district I was told today by a Campbell person. Let the games begin.

Wednesday, October 05, 2005

Chuck Muth's Opinion On The 48th CD General Election

This is a must read piece from seasoned campaign veteran Chuck Muth. I hope my team takes it to heart. The thing that stands out the most to me is:

Fundraising........It's a fact of life that would be politicians must pick up the phone and dial for dollars. It's not unlike what I do all day long. I make at least 100 phone calls a day on a bad day to constantly keep my pipeline filled up up with new account prospects. Here's Chuck's take on this issue....

"The ONLY way Jim Gilchrist has a prayer of actually winning the run-off in December is if he puts together a first-class winning message, saturates the district with it throughout November, does extensive telephone voter identification, and turns out people at the polls who didn’t show up yesterday. And that’s going to cost a considerable amount of money.

The sad thing is, Gilchrist *could* raise that kind of dough. He has NATIONAL name recognition as a leader on an extremely emotional issue. He only needs around 500 donors - out of the almost 300 MILLION people in this country (legally) - to kick in $1,000-to-$2,000 each and he’d have the money to effectively “inform the public who he is and what he can do.”

But the man just won’t pick up the phone and ask for the money. And as anyone with even a passing knowledge of political campaigns knows, “money isn’t given; it’s raised.” And it has to be raised by the candidate, not a bunch of surrogates. Donors want to talk to “the man.”

If Gilchrist won’t raise it by letting his fingers to the walking 4-6 hours a day for the next 30 days, it won’t come in. It’s as simple as that. And without the money to communicate his message to the voters and turn them out at the polls, he’s dead meat on December 6".

That's a tough pill to swallow, but we also have to live in the real world. Jim has to take this message to heart about the fundraising. It is the key to victory. Please just read the whole column. It's well worth the time.

A Quick Look At Some Amazing Numbers From Yesterday

how is this for a change in voter attitudes:

Early/Absentee vote:

Campbell 52%
Brewer 15%
Young 10%
Gilchrist 6%

Election Day:

Campbell 37%
Gilchrist 27%
Brewer 19%
Young 7%

Yeah, you heard that right. A 21 point increase in just 2 weeks.
Campbell dropped 15 points in 2 weeks. Un friggin believable.

My Winners & Losers

Silence Dogood at Hack N Flak just posted her/his winners and losers from yesterday's race for the 48th CD seat here in Orange County. I just want to say that frankly, I couldn't have said it better myself so I will post her winners and losers and echo every single point of her post except for maybe the slam on Gilchrist's "ad hoc crackpot campaign staff" and also add Phil Paule next to Dave Gilliard's name. Oh and lastly I'm adding talk radio to the list of winners , in particular John & Ken of KFI. One loser in talk radio goes to Hugh Hewitt. Other than that, I agree 100% of what he/she said. Without further ado, here it is:

October 4th Winners & Losers

Jubal has his here: link here

I have mine here.


The 320,000+ 48th CD voters who didn't show up at the polls yesterday: you now have another opportunity to exercise your civil right to vote who goes to Washington in December

Legal Immigration Lobby: you made it the focus of this election and John Campbell is still State Senator because of it

Dick Ackerman: you can safely say to all your supporters you would have made a better showing

Tom Tancredo: His star just keeps rising. He came out and endorsed Jim Gilchrist and when Jim wins in December, this is going to catapult Tancredo to even greater Presidential primary heights. He earns huge props for putting country over party. Something Darrell Issa & the GOP establishment should take note of.

Harvey Englander: you made a boatload off of convincing Marilyn Brewer she had a chance in this district and you grabbed the Democrat votes you always sought

Orange County/48th CD: you can safely say you are the antithesis of the Bay Area, for here Democrats are ones being beaten by minor party candidates

Jim Gilchrist: you were outspent more than ten to one and were only beaten three to one, you forced a five-year incumbent millionare car salesman into a runoff, bumbled the Minuteman ballot title, worked with an ad hoc crackpot campaign staff, and assuming you garnered all of the AIP votes in the district you still peeled off thousands of Republican votes, all of this while your name was buried in a ballot of seventeen, without a serious mail campaign and the infusion of personal wealth

Bloggers: you have so far made this one of the most exciting years in recent political history and gotten press while doing so

Talk Radio/John & Ken: Once again the dynamic duo from KFI proved that they have the star/ratings power to affect Congressional elections in a big way. Honorable mention also goes to John Zieglar of KFI and Al Rantel, Larry Elder & Doug Macintyre of KABC.

Don Udall: awesome sign placement

Orange County Taxman John Moorlach: Tom Harman will be too broke to run against you for Supervisor after he loses his postponed campaign to replace State Senator Campbell

Orange County Republican Central Committee (70th District): yesterday's results show that Marilyn Brewer's popularity has dropped considerably since she left the Assembly and she won't be joining your ranks in the near future (March 7, 2000: http://www.ocgov.com/election/Live/E50/frame50.htm and March 2, 2004: http://www.ocgov.com/election/Live/e12/frameset.htm) for she can't get the votes

Partygoers at Joe's Garage: most likely you'll see each other again in two months (this may or may not be a good thing)


Dave Gilliard/Phil Paule: you guys outspent all of your opponents, ran the ONLY absentee chase program in an election that had nearly 60% of the votes cast absentee, bussed people to the polls and still couldn't eek out 50%+1 in one of the most Republican Congressional Districts in the country. They're also personally/financially a winner in the sense that they're making bank off of John Campbell/GOP machine. Memo to Dave & Phil: if you need help investing all that money your making off of Campbell, give me a call and we'll talk about some good strategies for preserving and growing all this new earned wealth.

John Campbell: ditto, plus you did this while deftly dodging debates, not positioning yourself on any issue, and proving yourself unresponsive to your friends' inquiries

Steve Young and the California Democrat Party: you couldn't beat Jim Gilchrist and the AIP?

"Washington scum" who flew out to campaign: jet lagged and lost, you really proved your worth, now time to get back to your bureaucratic jobs and pork barrel politics

Darrel Issa and the California Republican Party Establishment: dispite your intimidation and threats, Republicans still voted for Jim Gilchrist, Darrel, it's your turn to cry now

Talk radio: Campbell lackey, Mr. Open Borders, and GOP establishment kool-aid drinker extraordinaire Hugh Hewitt.

Tom Harman: you have to postpone your ambitions for another couple months

Jubal: respectfully, your man didn't get what he wanted last night

Orange County: you get to pay for another election on top of your new and increased pension obligations, yip-pie

CTA: even after the IEs for Brewer, you still couldn't even get her elected to her local central committee


Marilyn Brewer: you know why

posted by Silence Dogood @ 9:25 AM

Tuesday, October 04, 2005

Runoff City Baby!!!

Sometimes you know in your gut that you did the most you could with the resources at hand. John Campbell just spent over a million dollars and bought himself a little over 36k votes. Jim Gilchrist spent about 150k and got almost 26% of the walk-in votes today at the precincts compared to Campbell's 38% performance in today's vote. Again I'll stipulate that Campbell obviously had the best absentee program of the primary compared to Jim's practically non-existing absentee GOTV. As most of you know, I am an investment advisor/managed futures specialist. I look at charts and trends all day long. I like the trend of the Gilchrist campaign right now a lot. Campbell has done nothing but go down the last month. Obviously, the NRCC is going to come in tomorrow or this week with both guns blazing and drop probably upwards of 2 million in Campbell's campaign account. That buys a lot of mercenaries, errr I mean campaign volunteers. Jim has come from basically out of nowhere to be in the position that he is in tonight. He has a chance with his current momentum to shock the entire political world on December 6th. I am going to enjoy every minute of this campaign going mano a mano with John Campbell. He ain't the Goliath that he thinks he is. Game on.

P.S. We almost beat that RINO Marilyn Brewer one on one. Have fun being a has been Marilyn. This is a conservative district. I don't want to hear anymore about how "moderate" this district is. That goes for every single RINO in the county. Scoreboard. You lose.

Tonight's Election Links

4:00-4:30 PM Turnout Sampling

I just got back from visiting three precincts here in Irvine. 4pm at precinct #59714 Vista Verde School saw 102 walk-in voters so far out of 2003 registered in the precinct. 754 requsted absentee ballots.

4:15pm at 59717 Turtle Rock Community Center saw 125 walk-in voters out of 1879 total registered voters. 879 requested absentee ballots.

4:30pm at #59715 Bonita Canyon School saw 111 walk-in voters out of 2174 total registered voters in the precinct. 700 requested absentee ballots.

So if we add all this up, it equals about a 5.5% walk-in voter turnout so far at 4:30pm. This is a really low turnout so far. Bottom line.....people are too fat and happy in Orange County to give a crap about good representation in Washington. I'm depressed.

*******************8 PM Poll Closing Update***************************

I just visited the Turtle Rock Community precinct at the poll closing and they had a grand total of 171 walk-in voters which equals about a 9.1% walk-in turnout. The poll workers said that they had also received some absentee votes via walk-in throughout the day, but they weren't sure about the number. I'd have to say from this turn of events that Campbell has an excellant chance of pulling out a victory tonight as much as I hate to say it. He did have the best absentee ballot campaign. We'll see for sure when the numbers start rolling in. I gotta call em as I see em even if the truth may hurt.

Today Is The Day To Send A Message To DC

I would like all my fellow Orange County and 48th CD residents to go to the polls today to send a message to Washington DC that the status quo on illegal immigration is over. We will no longer sit back and wait for the laws to be enforced. Jim Gilchrist has come from out of nowhere to where he is today and he might be the top vote getter tonight after the ballots are tallied. I will have a link up later to the OC Registrar so everyone can see the votes as they are counted.

I also want to take the time to thank Jubal over at OC Blog for mentioning my blog in his column today in the Orange County Register. The OC blogging scene has come a long way. The politicians who ignore the blogosphere do so at their own risk. This is the place to come to get the latest news and cutting edge commentary about the local political scene.

Monday, October 03, 2005

Tonight's Debate

It wasn't even close. Here is the audio to judge for yourselves(first half hour). Here is the second half hour. Jim Gilchrist hit the ball out of the park while John Campbell was reduced to looking like the political hack that he is. I was sitting in the front row. I got to see all the body language of the two candidates. John Campbell was in a defensive posture the entire debate. Jim Gilchrist had an edge to him tonight that so far I have only seen once before. For any Phil Hendrie fans out there, a guy emailed me and said that the debate reminded him of a bit featuring the gruff sounding Vernon Dozier(Gilchrist) and the weasely voice of Northern California liberal Dean Wheeler(Campbell). I was laughing because it was a good analogy. Campbell had all his people that he flew in from DC there. I'll give them credit that they know how to chant in unison Campbell Campbell Campbell, but beyond that, I tipped J&K off at one of the breaks that Campbell had all these DC hacks in the room and that's why there were a lot people dressed in suits. John Kobylt had a look of disgust on his face when I told him that. They then proceeded to warn all the Campbell hacks that chanting was off limits and that they were going to start rotating the audience out because there were a lot of regular KFI listeners outside waiting to get inside. It was standing room only in the ballroom where we were. Silence Dogood has an excellant analysis here at Hack n Flak also.

Real Conservatives Are Pissed Off

After the debacle SCOTUS pick, Harriett Miers, we conservatives have some options. The first one conveniently comes up tomorrow in the special election here in the central OC 48th CD. People can vote for Jim Gilchrist, the real conservative in the race. The other options range from cutting off donations to the RNC, NRSC, and the RNCC to writing letters to the editors of newspapers,etc. I'm not giving one more penny to the national GOP party or congressional committees. No mas. I am heartened that other conservative pundits feel the way that I do. One of the only "conservative" pundits singing the Bush tune on this nomination is Hugh Hewitt. I'm finding myself more and more disillusioned from the party than ever before. The country's interests come before the party for me. Tomorrow is going to be a watershed day in Orange County political history.

Bush's Latest Disaster

After all the natural disasters this year, Bush goes and does this. He selected his personal lawyer Harriett Miers for Sandra Day O'Conners seat on the SCOTUS. The base is pretty much done with Bush. He ran on a platform saying that he was conservative. He has done the opposite much of the time. Maybe this lady will turn out conservative, but why take the chance of getting Soutered again. We have a freakin huge majority in the Senate. Screw the Democrats. Let them filibuster his pick if need be. Instead we are treated to this. I am in shock from this pick.

****************8:15 PST Update **********************

Bush's nominee Harriett Miers gave money to Bill Clinton for President in 1991! Thanks for that one President Bush. Any one else see a pattern here of cronyism/nepotism? Mike Brown, Julie Myers, Alberto Gonzales, etc. This pick has to be a smokescreen. Karl Rove is not stupid, although I am beginning to wonder.

Sunday, October 02, 2005

Huge Gilchrist Weekend

The race for the 48th CD is almost over, at least the primary. It is a foregone conclusion now that there will be a runoff. Campbell's team can spin all they want, but we have a groundswell of support for Jim Gilchrist and it will only build as we get to the December runoff. Two out of three Republicans and about half of all Democrats contacted by our volunteers are voting for Jim Gilchrist. Sorry John Campbell, those are the facts. I read a funny quote today also that Campbell said. He was talking about how he is a marketing guy and that campaigns are a marketing campaign. He is the product being marketed. It's a good analogy. I have a better one though. I've been selling intangibles(investment advisory services) over the phone for over ten years and I'm telling everyone flat out that people are not buying John Campbell, but Jim Gilchrist is flying off the shelf.

Saturday, October 01, 2005

Yours Truly In The OC Register Today

Props to Martin Wisckol of the OC Register. He wrote a nice piece this morning about Jim Gilchrist's strong independent bid for the 48th CD seat here in central OC. Here is the link for the article. I spent about twenty minutes on the phone with Mr. Wisckol a few days ago. We talked about the race in detail. What ended up in the final cut for the article was this...

"This (election) is the opportunity to make a statement nationwide, and to send a message to President Bush," said Irvine's Allan Bartlett, a 35-year-old commodities broker who said this is the first time he'll vote for someone other than a Republican. "Huge numbers of people are concerned with illegal immigration, but the politicians go back (to Washington) and have an open-border policy."

Despite their stated positions, the top GOP candidates have not convinced Bartlett they'll change that.

So there you have it. My fifteen minutes of fame are up(more like 30 seconds). I'll be out in the field the next couple of days with the other 500 or Gilchrist volunteers that we have assembled to get the vote out for Jim. It is my pleasure to do it. There is nothing better than using a lot of shoe leather for a low turn-out election like this. Look for my smiling face at your doorstep fellow OC denizens.