Mike Carona Corruption Trial Won't Be Going Anywhere

In another blow to ex Sheriff Mike Carona's legal problems, the judge in the case Andrew Guilford has ruled against a defense motion to move the trial out of OC. The defense had argued that KFI's John & Ken had to much influence over potential jurors. Now this ruling is out of the way, there is no way in hell Carona will let this thing go to trial. I expect a plea deal before the scheduled trial date in August.

Irvine Sign Update

It's been an interesting last few days for me dealing with the city I live in regarding my political signs that I put up last week. As most know, my signs were ordered to be confiscated because in their opinion, the signs were "commercial ones". I could not disagree with them more strongly and I'm very disappointed that they are going down this road. The signs are clearly a political statement by myself & others that are protected speech by the First Amendment to the Constitution. I think Irvine's sign ordinance is ripe to be overturned.

Here is the official response I got back from the city manager Sean Joyce regarding the city's decision. If you'll notice the last part of the letter asks me to provide proof in the form of an invoice and receipt that I am the owner of the signs in question. While I don't think this was malicious in its intent, I think it's curious that they would ask me for this. Why do they want to know this information?

Stephen Smith over at The Irvine Tattler also has a wrapup of the events of the last few days.

High Commodity Prices Draw Ire Of The American people

So I'm reading an article about a hearing yesterday in DC about how Sentors and Congressmen are outraged by rising commodity prices. Duh. People are pissed off that every time they go to fill up their tank and buy groceries, prices just seem to be creeping ever higher. Unfortunately for the American people, 99% of our representatives have no clue why prices have gone up so much. They think the rise is from us "evil speculators"(people like me and my clients). The rise is due to the value of our US Dollar falling off a cliff because of the debasement of the currency. When you print/create as much money as the Federal Reserve has for the last umpteen years, this is the consequence...higher prices for all commodities. The only way out of this mess is to get back to the what the US Constitution stipulates...only gold & silver are to be used for money. It's like Article 1 Section 8 of the Constitution doesn't exsist to these politicians.

OC GOP Central Committee Meeting Last Night

Last night at the OC GOP Central Committee Meeeting, I had a chance to meet Barry Goldwater Jr. I had read his father's book "Conscience of a Conservative". I wanted to meet Barry Jr who was a Congressman in his own right. when I found out he was coming to OC, I wanted to make sure I had a chance to meet him. Mr Goldwater gave a great speech about his life in politics and what it was like to grow up in the Goldwater family. He also has a new book out called Pure Goldwater which is a series of diary, personal journal entries and letters of his late father all compiled in this book. I got an autographed copy and photo w/him as well. It was also cool to talk him about his endorsement of Ron Paul for President. He served with Ron in Congress back in the 70s. He made a point to say that he was now on board in endorsing John McCain. I wouldn't go that far yet, but he did make the Ron Paul activists think last night about this decision.

City Of Irvine Confiscates My Political Signs

Things are already starting to heat up in Irvine. The past few weeks myself and a few other Irvine activists raised some money and bought some signs to be put out over the city that said "Goto www.irvinetattler.com". Within one day of putting them up, they were gone. I suspect they were ordered to be yanked out by the powers that be at Irvine City Hall(read that as The Larry Agran Cabal Inc), but I'm not certain yet. I'm going to do a lot more digging today on this issue. Stephen Smith wrote this morning on his website, Irvine Tattler, that the signs were ordered to be taken down "because the city had received some complaints about them". That has got to be one of the lamest excuses of all time. They took them down because they were starting to have a small impact. Stephen wrote that hits to his website nearly tripled after the signs were put out. I faxed over a letter this morning to City Hall that read as follows:

May 15, 2008


TO THE IRVINE CITY COUNCIL:


Over the weekend of May 10 and 11, I exercised my free speech rights under the United States Constitution and the Irvine Municipal Code by placing temporary political placards on public property open to the general public. The signs promoted IrvineTattler.com, a web site that expresses opinions about Irvine political issues. These signs were paid for and placed by me as an expression of my opinion about Irvine politics.

On the evening of May 12, I saw that the signs were missing. I placed over 100 of these signs and now I can't find them anywhere.

I carefully researched the legality of these signs. The Irvine Free Speech Ordinance says:

CHAPTER 6. FREE SPEECH RIGHTS

Sec. 4-14-601. Prohibitions.
No person shall interfere with the exercise of free speech rights by persons within areas open to the general public in shopping centers, apartment complexes and other private or public property open to the general public. As used in this section, "free speech rights" shall mean the right to freedom of speech, the right to solicit and collect signatures on petitions and the right to distribute literature or display temporary signs or placards of a political nature; provided such activities do not result in the obstruction of entrances, exits or passageways or create a threat to public safety.
(Code 1976, § IV.L-601; Ord. No. 90-3, § 1, 2-13-90)

The ordinance is quite clear that I have the right to place temporary placards of a political nature on public property open to the general public.

If you or your staff removed these signs, you are in violation of Irvine law and the First Amendment of the Constitution and I expect you to immediately return the signs to their original locations.

Please contact me immediately to explain if you know what happened to these signs. You can call me at (949) xxx-xxxx or email me at allanbartlett@gmail.com


Allan Bartlett

cc: Tony Barboza, Los Angeles Times
Sean Emery, Orange County Register
R. Scott Moxley, OC Weekly
Rick Reiff, OC Business Journal

It's Not Looking Good For The Little (former)Sheriff

The last few weeks have not been kind for Team Carona's legal team. Last Friday the judge in the case ruled against defense motions to suppress secretly taped conversations of Carona & Don Haidl talking about ways to obstruct justice. These are the famous John & Ken tapes that the disc jockeys have been role playing for the last month on the KFI airwaves. It's hilarious stuff. He also ruled against dismissing other charges against the former Sheriff. There's another big ruling coming up as well on the question of moving the trial out of OC. I have a hunch it will stay right here where it belongs. The way this is playing out, I just get the feeling that Carona will have no choice but to cop a plea and start serving time like he deserves.

******************* 5/8/08 Afternoon Update **************************

The judge in the Carona case Andrew Guilford has unsealed a defense motion that among other things seeks to change venues and have KFI hosts John & Ken prosecuted and jailed until the trial starts. I'm not making this up. Apparently the Carona attorneys didn't study Constitutional Law when they went to law school. J&K's speech is protected by the First Amendment. This is going to be a ratings bonanza for the guys at KFI. They can only hope this thing goes to trial...that just means more material for them. Here's a link to the ridiculous motion.

Mt. Whitney Or Bust

I've been wanting to scale the heights of Mt Whitney for a long time. It gives me a good goal to shoot for as well as to get back into great shape. You need to apply for permit from the Forest Service through a lottery that begins on Feb 1st of each year. Last year I didn't get selected. This year however, I got lucky and got the dates of July 16th & 17th to climb the tallest mountain in the Continental US. I've been training hard for the last month and I have two and half more months of grueling workouts and training hikes scheduled for the three local Southern California peaks...San Jacinto, Baldy, & San Gorgonio. I will post pictures of my trip when I return. Here's a great Mt. Whitney forum for all those whose curiousity about climbing this mountain I may have peaked.

Ron Paul Supporters Have Super Majority At Nevada GOP State Convention

I read about this the other day over at the Lew Rockwell Blog. I see this morning that the story made the frontpage of the Drudgereport now. It's hilarious to read about all the McCainiacs hyper-ventilating about what transpired at the Convention. Ron Paul supporters out hustled and out organized everyone in Nevada. My only regret is that we couldn't do this well enough in other states. So as of now, it appears that most of the delegates to the GOP National Convention from Nevada will be Ron Paul supporters.

Wednesday Thoughts

The first panacea of a mismanaged government is inflation of the currency. The second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring more permanent ruin" …
Ernest Hemingway

As most can see, I haven't exactly been burning up the electronic ink lately on my blog. Hopefully that will change. I've been real busy with work and other projects. I did get a chance to watch some analysis last night of the Pennsylvania donkey primary. What can I say. The Clintons are not going down without a fight. John McCain is sitting back and smiling while the dems continue to eat each other up. If I were him though, I wouldn't be breaking my arm patting myself on the back, I would be trying to rebuild rapport with conservatives. Right now there is no energy and passion to volunteer for him in the GOP. His people can say all they want, but the truth is the truth. He's got a tall order. In addition to all the Bush baggage weight he has to carry this November....baggage weight that would make Atlas blush, he has to deal with all his own effed up policy positions. It's sad to say, but once again I think the election in November is going to come down to who the American people dislike the least.

Quote Of The Day

"Man, once surrendering his reason, has no remaining guard against absurdities... With such persons, gullibility, which they call faith, takes the helm from the hand of reason and the mind becomes a wreck".....Thomas Jefferson

I couldn't help posting this quote today in light of all the manipulation going on in the financial markets. We don't have free markets anymore in this country, we have managed markets by the Fed.

Springsteen Anaheim Concert Review

Wow! It's hard to put into words the performance of Bruce Springsteen & The E Street Band over at the Honda Center last night. For a man who is knocking on the door of turning 60(he's 58 right now), the energy that Bruce has is just amazing. I want what he's on when I'm 58. The show started at about 8:30pm and didn't end until about 11:30PM. I was absolutely blown away by the set list he broke out:

Light Of Day
Radio Nowhere
Lonesome Day
Gypsy Biker
Murder Incorporated
Magic
Trapped
Reason To Believe
Because The Night
She's The One
Livin' In The Future
The Promised Land
Working On The Highway
The Ghost Of Tom Joad
Devil's Arcade
The Rising
Last To Die
Long Walk Home
Badlands
Out In The Street
Girls In Their Summer Clothes
Rosalita
Born To Run
Ramrod
American Land

We got to hear Trapped, Rosalita, Ramrod, Light of Day, Badlands, Out In The Street, etc. Damn! My ears are still ringing this morning. I'd never been to a concert at the Honda Center. I thought the acoustics were great. The best part of the night was scoring FRONT ROW tickets right before the show started. That didn't suck. All and all, it was another epic night of Rock n'Roll from the Boss.

The Fairytale Is About To End In The Markets

I've haven't had my usual inciteful biting commentary lately about what has happened in our financial markets the past two weeks. Consider this a recap and forecast of what's to come. It ain't going to be pretty.

What a goofy two weeks we've just experienced. Bear Stearns was surgically removed from the system by the Fed and JPM. Until 2 weeks ago there were very few if any admissions about the true [recessive] state of the economy. We heard; slow growth, no recession, no core inflation, inflation expectations were "well anchored", stocks were undervalued, blah blah blah.

Yesterday the Lehman Bros. deal was supposedly oversubscribed threefold. No one would be so stupid as to clamor for a financial that was speculated to be brain dead just 1 week ago. Real bids and oversubscription are not possible. Gold and Silver have taken 14%-20+% hits in these two weeks. Silver by far is the biggest joke of all. While its price has dropped 20+%, there is evidence all over the US that metal does not exist for delivery. So supply has almost completely dried up, yet the price collapses! Not a possible scenario.

Now we are being told that the recession [which was denied until two weeks ago] is more than half over. Since it is supposedly more than half over, we are told NOW is the time to buy stocks. I hadn't heard earlier that we were supposed to sell stocks to protect ourselves from this oncoming recession. MY BAD! Wag the Dog doesn't even begin to describe what we are being fed [FED] currently. In my opinion the American public is being set up for the most massive financial slaughter in the history of history. The financial debt cancer that started in the US and has spread to the world will not be cured by magicians and witch doctors. This is about MATH. The math says insolvency cannot be cured by more liquidity, more debt, or more of the same which caused the problems to begin with.

When the history books are written about this debacle, I'm sure the word "obfuscation" will be used, and used, and used. 100 years from now when these same history books are purchased and read, GOLD and SILVER will still be money. Federal reserve notes will be "collectibles". We were on the edge of total collapse two weeks ago. The situation has not changed at all since then. The" fabricated perceptions" spun by our leaders, and hoped for by the public, have been spun harder and wished for more fervently. When a hurricanes' frontal winds begin to hit the coast, the government can tell you "it's only a rain shower", people can believe them or not. The bottom line is, a category 5 hurricane will blow your "financial house" away forever. Reality is reality, fantasies are fantasies. THE BOTTOM of 2 weeks ago was a false bottom. When the levels of 2 weeks ago fail, we will hear more spin again.

When reality hits, panic will set in, this is a certainty because Math is Math. The math of overleverage started to set in about a year ago. Decades of increasing overleverage will not be cleaned up by a passing rain shower. Build your ark, protect yourselves and families, MATH is about to set in.

The Ron And Ben Show

Today Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made his way onto Capital Hill to testify on some of the Feds latest machinations. As always, the smartest person in DC, Ron Paul was there to lecture and ask Ben questions that never get asked by other Congressmen. Here's the You Tube of the exchange:

Friday Quote of the Day

"They look upon fraud as a greater crime than theft, and therefore seldom fail to punish it with death; for they allege, that care and vigilance, with a very common understanding, may preserve a man’s goods from thieves, but honesty has no defence against superior cunning; and, since it is necessary that there should be a perpetual intercourse of buying and selling, and dealing upon credit, where fraud is permitted and connived at, or has no law to punish it, the honest dealer is always undone, and the knave gets the advantage"

Gulliver’s Travels by Jonathan Swift

Swift began writing the book not long after the South Sea Bubble burst in 1720 although the book was only published 6 years later.

Quote Of The Day

"The government consists of a gang of men exactly like you and me. They have, taking one with another, no special talent for the business of government; they have only a talent for getting and holding office. Their principal device to that end is to search out groups who pant and pine for something they can't get and to promise to give it to them. Nine times out of ten that promise is worth nothing. The tenth time is made good by looting A to satisfy B. In other words, government is a broker in pillage, and every election is sort of an advance auction sale of stolen goods." …

H.L. Mencken

March Madness

Wow. UCLA just survived a scare from a really good Texas A&M team over at the Honda Center. College Basketball and more specifically the NCAA men's basketball tournament is one of the best sporting events to watch of all time. It's a good thing no one was in my living room tonight. You would have seen a grown man yell, scream, hoot & holler like an idiot for my beloved Bruins of UCLA. Seriously though, Kevin Love & Darren Collison were money tonight. They'll play the winner of tomorrow night's University of San Diego vs Western Kentucky winner in Phoenix next week.

Get Ready For A Full Point Cut By The Fed Today

We are truly headed into uncharted territory when it comes to our economy. You might call it the "Orwellian Era". At a time when the Fed should be doing all it can to fight price inflation, they are instead throwing massive amounts of gasoline onto the inflation fire with this cut today. The silver lining of these cuts is that they are temporarily driving the stock market up. This is giving the people that heretofore haven't gotten out of the market, a chance to do so in a nice orderly fashion. This is a gift people. I hope you take it. I of course will using this great opportunity to add to my shorts on all the investment banks that are left standing. Of course as everyone has heard, Bear Stearns is no longer with us after getting unceremoniously bought up for $2 bucks a share yesterday by JP Morgan.

Picture Of The Day

Extraordinary Day In The Stock Market

JP Morgan and the NY Fed had to step in and bail out investment bank Bear Stearns this morning. I'll have much more to say about this later tonight, but suffice to say that I have warned everyone that this was coming.

President Bush Says US Dollar "Adjusting"

You just have to laugh sometimes at the people in charge of our country...or cry for that matter. Today when asked about his policy for a strong US Dollar, the President said it is currently "adjusting". Now just stop for a moment and let that last quote sink in. This has got to be the euphemism of the year so far....adjusting???? The frikkin thing is falling off the face of this Earth right now. I think our President needs to break out his Thesaurus and come up with a new adjective. I'd use words like free falling, collapsing, tanking, crashing and burning, nose diving, disintegrating, debacle, breaking down, annihilated, carnage, etc. You get the picture. His speech writer needs to do better. I leave you with a sad but true illustration of where our dollar is headed.

Quote Of The Day

"One of the objectives they had for the creation of the Federal Reserve System was to create a structure which would have a hand in the public purse, so that when the banks got into trouble they would be able to draw upon tax payers' support to bail them out, and they would do so under the banner of protecting the public. It's a very clever ploy."

G. Edward Griffin....Author of The Creature From Jekyll Island

Consider This The Last Warning

If there were any kind of warning system for the financial markets like there is for hurricanes, tornadoes, and other natural disasters...it would be blarring GET OUT right now. This is the last chance regular people have to get out of the way of an imminent stock market crash IMO. The signs are obvious everywhere. I will make my case one more time in the hopes that I may save some unsuspecting victims the pain of losing a great deal of their retirement portfolio.

This is from Lemetropolecafe today:

I woke up this morning and saw the US Dollar a little firmer, gold and silver softer, and stock futures about unchanged. With the news of this past weekend, I wonder, how is any of this possible? The Dollar should be in freefall, along with equities, and the metals should be "up limit". The Fed puts an emergency $200 billion into the banking system, JP Morgan says the banks are facing a "systemic margin call", Ambac raised a whopping $1.5 Billion, 70% of ARM munis failed last week, and Fannie and Freddie have had their credit quality questioned, resulting in billions being dumped on the market. This is not the recipe for disaster, this is disaster! We live on Planet Orwell. It is over. I don't know when the masses will realize this fact, but they will very shortly! What we have directly ahead is what I call a "garden hose" market. We will see $trillions trying to get out of all things paper, ie $s, bonds, stocks, you name it. This same money will then seek to enter the safe haven of the precious metals markets. The problem will be the "garden hose" syndrome. What is this syndrome you ask? It is the belief that with the push of a button, you can get out, or in. Trying to put Niagara falls through a "garden hose" just won't work! Mathematically impossible. In today's markets the doors out of paper and into the metals are small, and getting smaller everyday. Listening to CNBC, Bloomberg, etc., I can only shake my head. I'm hearing " buy the housing and finance stocks, they led us in, they'll lead us out". Or how about this one. An analyst this morning who touted the "goldilocks" or "soft landing" scenario until a week ago said, "this recession will be mild and over by June". Wouldn't it have been nice if he had given us a little notice ahead of time, warning of a recession? THIS IS SYSTEMIC! Don't listen to me, don't listen to Bill Murphy, listen to JP Morgan! They know. They created, along with other rocket scientists, this game. They have told us the banks face a systemic "margin call". Why shouldn't we believe them? Wall Street firms have the reputation of putting lipstick on pigs, painting pretty pictures, etc.. How bad must the banking system really be if they tell us of a systemic margin call? Are they being square with us, or is the systemic margin call a rosy scenario?

The point is, we are on the cusp of "shock and awe". The average person who listens to financial news and does not dig for the truth will truly be shocked and awed. I issued a Crash Alert to my clientele this past Saturday. I see no other avenue at this point. I pray I'm wrong.

Vatican Lists "New Sins"

For all of us Catholics out there, practicing and non practicing, fear not because the church has come up with a list of new sins that are to be avoided at all costs. It mainly has to do with the area of bio-ethics, but it also deals with issues like global warming and various other "ecological offenses". I noticed that this so called new list doesn't mention anything about their priests to not molest little boys or of dioceses obstructing justice by stonewalling investigations by proper authorities. Isn't that curious? When you can't get your own house in order, telling others how to live their lives rings very hollow to me.

A Heartfelt Email From A Fellow OC Ron Paul Activist

As we're approaching the March 7th filing deadline for all candidates running for office, I wanted to share with my readers an email I received today from Krissy Alonzo who is running for the GOP Central Committee in the 67th District. These are the kind of quality people this Presidential campaign is bringing back into the GOP. I know how you felt Krissy when you got a little choked up, raised your right hand, and swore an oath to defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign or domestic. Here's the email:

Hi Allan,

My name is Kristine Alonzo and I am running for OC Central Committee for the 67th district. I turned in my signatures today (37!!!!). I raised my right hand and swore an oath to defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign or domestic. I have to tell you, I got choked up. What a privilege and what an awesome responsibility, even at the Central Committee level! :)

I want to somehow get a thank you out to all of the wonderful Ron Paul supporters who helped me collect signatures. With my schedule, it simply would not have been possible to collect as many as I did without all of the help. Lyle DeVore, Gabe and Claudia (also from Huntington Beach) and Justine Sneddon collected so many signatures for me! They are awesome! And then, of course, there were many people who drove to my husband's office simply to sign my sheet. With such a devoted and organized group of people, I know the Ron Paul Revolution has only just begun!

Please assist me in thanking these dear folks by forwarding my email to the meet-up groups of HB, Cypress, LB, etc... I really appreciate your help. Thanks so much!

Krissy Alonzo
Candidate for Central Committee
67th District

It's my pleasure Krissy. Thanks for all your hard work. I look forward to your help in getting the GOP backs to its root message of limited constitutional government.

Today's Market Commentary

It was an exciting weekend for the Bartlett clan. Lynn and her brother ran the LA Marathon yesterday and I chased em' all over the city lending moral support and logistical support in the form of Gatorade, Power Bars, & bananas. My favorite part of the route was around mile 20. The race wove its way through the so called "Fashion District" of downtown LA. There's nothing fashionable about it. It's a freakin' ghetto, but I digress. Lynn finished in five hours thirty nine minutes
.

As far as the markets today, the theme was Thornburg Mortgage. Last week it was AMBAC. There are so many potential triggers out there. No one can know what event, company, bankruptcy, etc. will set it off. The situation has now become obvious. We have had rate cuts, Central Bank infusions, fiscal promises, bank nationalizations and promises of more banking support. These have not worked. The economy is now accelerating to the downside. Warren Buffet today said " by any common sense definition, we are in a recession". The credit crunch is now biting the real economy with a vengeance. The catch 22 is that none of these traditional remedies will/can work.

We have gold at close to $1,000 per oz....The anti-dollar can never enter a Bankruptcy court. Gold will never require a capital infusion or "Fed loan" to remain solvent. Gold doesn't get heart palpitations while waiting for reaffirmation of a bogus AAA rating from Moodys, Standard & Poors, or Fitch. It can't have counter-party risk if you have it in hand. If you have no margin against it, you can't receive a margin call that have been ever so popular as of late. If you didn't know better, you'd think it should be a boring investment. It actually is. An oz. today, will still be the same ounce next year.

Quote of the Day

"As house prices fall, a huge amount of financial folly is being exposed. You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out -- and what we are witnessing at some of our largest financial institutions is an ugly sight."

Warren Buffett

Definition Of Inflation....

According to Websters it's:

"An increase in the amount of currency in circulation, resulting in a relatively sharp and sudden fall in its value and rise in prices: it may be caused by an increase in the volume of paper money issued or of gold mined, or a relative increase in expenditures as when the supply of goods fails to meet the demand.

It's safe to say that inflation is alive and well today. In fact, it's thriving.

We have seen this "definition" morph into "the rise in CPI and PPI". Chairman Bernanke has a PHD, doctorate or whatever in economics. He knows by heart what inflation is. He knows exactly how much money has been pumped into the system during the Greenspan years and during his term. He knows that "CPI" is not inflation. He knows the CPI #s have been massaged, distorted, and mauled to mislead the public into believing inflation is not a problem. The public knows inflation is a problem! What the public doesn't know is that money supply has exploded for several years now. All the public knows is that everything costs more today than yesterday.

For Chairman Bernanke to have had his hands on the money supply lever, crank it full blast, and tell Congress that inflation is not a problem is a crime! In fact, it is perjury in real life. Earlier this month CNBC pondered whether Roger Clemens or his trainer would be brought up on perjury charges for lying about steroid use. I ponder whether the Chairman will be brought on perjury charges for steroid use...on the economy! It is so disingenuous for Chairman Bernanke to absolutely know the correct definition of inflation, control the money supply, know that the money supply has been jammed as hard as they could, then smile while testifying to Congress and LIE! The government has exploded the money supply and hoped that no one would notice the results. Well, people have noticed!

I wrote close to a year ago about the worst of all worlds. This is now in fact happening. The things we need and use everyday are hyper inflating, while the things we have, or have borrowed against are imploding in value. I don't have a fancy name for this type of event. How about if we just call it a "TRAIN WRECK", LOL.

Lastly, President held a presser today to talk about the FISA Bill, the economy and various other things. He actually had the temerity to say that "he believes in a strong dollar policy". I had a good belly laugh over that one.

Quote Of The Day

"A government that is big enough to give you all you want is big enough to take it all away " … Barry Goldwater

Ron Paul Schools Ben Bernanke Again

Today the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke went before Congress again to defend the current policies of the Fed of easing the cost of money...ergo, cutting the interest rates for those of you in Rio Linda. It's a ruinious policy that has the US Dollar in an absolute freefall right now. I on the other hand want to profusely thank our government for giving smart investors a roadmap of how to get wealthy in this coming stagflation depression. Unfortunately Joe Sixpack is not going to make out very well in this economic environment. So here's the video of Ron Paul earlier today grilling Uncle Ben about his horrible US Dollar policy.

Got Silver?

I do. So do a lot of my clients. It was up another 70 cents today to close around $18.80/ounce. It's within striking distance of $20 bucks an ounce and after that twenty five dollars an ounce. It's truly a joy to watch it everyday knowing that all the research I did is paying off nicely. I figure when it hits $150 an ounce later next year or in the next few years, I might look to start taking a little profit off the table. For now I get satisfaction everyday watching the incompetent managers at the Federal Reserve and other government agencies try to manipulate these markets while I watch the value of hard assets go through the roof.

Market Recap For Last Week

Last week showed further deterioration beneath the surface. In fact, right down to the foundation. The credit crunch has gotten somewhat worse in that, Commercial paper and Asset Backed mortgages contracted a further $30 Billion for the week. We are very close to this sector going "exponential" to the downside. The auction rate municipals had 480 "failed" auctions in one day. In 24 years there have been a total of only 44 until now. California has about a month to go to remedy a $16 Billion deficit. We had several Banks admit to more "hung deals". And...... the biggest news of all that got no press, attention, reaction, nothing, was KKR. KKR [Kohlberg, Kravis, Roberts] announced that they were having problems refinancing current debt outstanding. This is HUGE! KKR has been one of, if not the premier buyout firm for the last 20 years. For them to have a problem with financing is astonishing. What does this really mean? What it means is that deals cannot be done. If KKR cannot refinance or get financing for new deals, virtually no one can. If new deals can't be financed, then what business does the stock market have being at these levels? Back in 1989, United Airlines had a deal that fell through. The stock market fell about 7% on the day of the announcement. The public has their collective heads in the sand, hoping that all of this will blow over. The PPT [Plunge Protection Team] keeps propping up the market so the public doesn't panic. This has worked to a degree because the public watches the Dow Jones and not the "guts" of the credit markets. The rub here is that the "guts" of the credit markets are what makes the world go round. NO CREDIT, NO ECONOMY! Plain and simple. The real economy is going off a cliff here and now, and the stock market has a bid under it by "The Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets". Wonderful!

Northern Rock, the British bank was nationalized, several German state owned banks are on the verge of collapse, our banking system is frozen solid, credit markets of all types in the US are in shambles, inflation is exploding while credits and the real economy are imploding. It is all perception until it is not, or until perceptions change Change they will! We also had a 200+ point rally Friday afternoon because AMBAC announced that they were close to a deal to raise $2.5 Billion. What a joke. They have a market capitalization of about $1 Billion, insure $700 Billion of munis, and Lord knows how much in Credit Default Swaps, and $2.5 Billion will solve all problems and save the world!

Two or 3 weeks ago the government said they would stop reporting a slew of economic numbers because it just cost too much to prepare these reports. Under great pressure they have relented. What gives? Are we supposed to invest our capital in the worlds' most "free" and "transparent" market while not having a clue what the money supply, inflation, unemployment, housing, etc. numbers are? Another shocker last week was the talk of no more certificates. The talk is, we will only have 2 options in the future. Either hold your securities in "street name" with a broker , or at the transfer agent on their computer books. NO MORE CERTIFICATES! They don't want certificates around because it's easier to manipulate the markets without them.

The public will keep their heads in the sand until they don't. More than likely, when they collectively lift their heads to look around it will be too late. While the public slept, they had their collective A$$E$ shot off. They will then panic, after it is too late. This is for all the marbles! All the financial marbles will will be in the "real" bag, the "paper" bags will be empty. As I see it, much if not all of the "paper" created over the last 25 years or so, will blow away. We will restart, rebuild, rethink, everything financial, starting from a solid foundation. Metals, or other real goods will back money, debt will be backed by real properties with real appraisals. When it comes to money, plain and simple trumps bells and whistles.

OC Ron Paul Activists Are Running For The GOP Central Committee

One of the best things to come out of all the Ron Paul activism in Orange County is that a bunch of us are running for the OC GOP Central Committee. We want to help the party get back to the message of smaller government. It's going to be a "get back to basics" message that we will deliver. It's not a hostile takeover attempt like the New Majority tried to do a few years back. Here is a rundown of some of the current candidates that have already pulled their papers:

67th District
1. Justine Sneddon
2. Kristine Alonzo

68th District
1. David Stokesbary
2. Eddy Karam

70th District
1. Allan Bartlett
2. Anthony Arechiga
3. Ethan Jacobs

72nd District
1. Robert Beckman
2. Alex Norby(son of Supervisor Chris Norby)


We have more people getting their papers this week. I will update the list when I can. We had a few more people willing to run as well, but the rules stipulating twelve months continuous registration as a Republican caught up some that wanted to run. The good news is that these disaffected people are now coming back to the party because of Ron Paul's run.

New Irvine Political Blog

I was just informed that there is a new Irvine political blog on the scene. The name of it is The Irvine Tattler. It is written by a former long time ally of Larry Agran, Stephen C. Smith! This is great. We need more coverage of Larry trying to anoint himself dictator for life in Irvine. Stephen will have some very cogent insight into the mind of Larry Agran since he used to be his executive assistant.

I was talking to some Irvine political people last week. Did you know that over the course of time since Larry's team has been back in the majority, not once has the council majority differed on any votes. I found that astonishing. I mean I knew that Sukhee and Beth didn't think for themselves, but this is like a smoking gun. Are you gonna tell me that out of hundreds of votes taken, not once has Sukhee or Beth voted against Larry. Nice independence there guys. You're supposed to represent all of Irvine.

This brings me to my next thought about about the upcoming Council meeting Tuesday. Larry, errr I mean Beth, (sarcasm on)has come up with a brilliant plan to cherry pick part of the recently enacted ethics ordinance dealing with lobbyists and place it on the June ballot.(sarcasm off). Come on guys, we've been down this road before. You tried to smear Christina Shea during the last election cycle and it didn't work. This is some really brilliant political work there Larry, how original. Try to weaken Christina before the November election by passing more ethics stuff when you're the one who should be targeted by an ethics ordinance. If this is so important that it needs to be put on the June ballot, why not have the entire ordinance on the ballot? I can answer my own question...because November is fast approaching and Larry needs some good lies for his Hometown Voter guides. I encourage Irvine residents to show up at the Council meeting Tuesday and let their voices be heard on this issue.

This Past Weeks News In The Markets

This past week saw less visible volatility to the public eye. The stock indices which "Joe and Jane public" watch saw less volatility. However there was tremendous volatility in commodities, such as the grains and energy complex. The big story was the credit complex. The ARM [auction rate municipal] market saw some rates go as high as 20 %. This because of the uncertainty with MBIA, AMBAC, and the other insurers, plus the big brokers backed away and did not support this market once the bids dried up. These brokers in the past would step up to smooth out any poor or failed auctions. They are afraid to/and don't have the capital to lend the support now needed. Imagine 20% rates on tax free municipal bonds! I thought the Fed just cut rates! The bond insurers have until next Friday to come up with a plan, or face ratings downgrades. What is happening in the credit markets now is "our collective worst nightmare" and "mathematically expected and assured". Virtually all foms of debt have been impacted by this credit crunch. Once a credit based economy experiences a "lack of faith" the end is near since more credit is needed just to sustain life. We have seen the entire debt complex from commercial paper and ARM munis, to credit card and auto loan securities, to home equity and all forms of mortgage loan securities, to AAA Munis, all the way to the most exotic forms of derivatives, freeze up/blow up/implode.

What we have not seen yet to any large degree is a major convulsion in the US Treasury markets. THIS IS NEXT! The federal deficit is set to explode with receipts cratering, and expenditures exploding because business is contracting. This fiscal trainwreck will happen while the Fed lowers and lowers rates, and pumps and pumps more money into the system which further debases the Dollar. We are watching desperate measures being used to buy time, and obscure bankruptcies from public view.

Since the Fed cut rate 1.25% ALL Treasuries with a maturity longer than 3 years have risen in rate and fallen in price. Not drastically yet, but rates have risen. We are watching the last haven of US debt start to bend. So far this has been in somewhat slow motion. We could be very close to Treasuries convulsing. Foreigners have funded US deficits since 1980. If foreign capital decides that either the Dollar is too risky of a currency, or that the US Treasury is not the "AAA" credit that it once was, we go directly into implosion mode without passing go or collecting $200. I assure you, things will speed up! Our entire system is predicated on credit. Bad things are already beginning to happen across the the whole economic spectrum. Can you imagine what things will be like if Uncle Sam gets shut out of the credit markets? EVERYTHING will change!

This is another way of saying foreigners won't accept $s. Not buying Treasuries, or even selling Treasuries would be a function of not wanting Dollars. The results will be disastrous. We will be forced for the first time in x number of years to actually live within our means. This poses a big problem because the US no longer produces much in the way of real goods. Less than 1 in 10 jobs now are in the manufacturing sector. In the last 10 to 15 years the US has spent nearly all of its accumulated capital ie[fat], sent more than half of its manufacturing overseas ie[muscle], ruined the world's reserve currency ie[blood], and bankrupted the greatest empire of all time. None of us made this situation what it is, everyone of us needs to do what is necessary to protect ourselves and loved ones.

Quote of the Day

"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value ... zero."

Voltaire

The Derivatives Disaster Is Upon Us

I don't know the full name of the guy that wrote this, but I believe every word of it because I see it happening right now. I saw it today over on Lemetropole Cafe.

Today, Warren Buffet disclosed bids he made to Ambac, and MBIA. These bids were solely for the muni bond insurance, not credit default swaps, not CDO's, nothing to do with mortgages. He wants the profitable crown jewels. He doesn't want the toxic waste that will ultimately bankrupt these companies, not to mention the entire "fiat" system. Wall Street applauded the deal because they may not have to sell Billions $ of munis because they are no longer AAA rated. Buffet is not a stupid man. He is getting in line to scoop up this portion of the business when the insurers get/go downgraded or bankrupt. Both stocks were beaten like redheaded stepchildren in today's market. In some cases, uninsured bonds are trading higher in price than insured bonds. The bottom line here is; a recession is going to blow out the federal deficit, state and municipal deficits, over-leveraged corporations, homeowners, and consumers. Even if Mr. Buffet succeeds in getting the "muni bonds contract" it's all a joke anyway. Either these bonds can stand on their own or they cannot. No company, Central bank, or combination of the two can stop what is coming down the tracks. We are talking TRILLIONS! There are $750 Trillion of derivatives outstanding. 3/4 of a QUADRILLION DOLLARS! A Quadrillion. I can't believe we are using the "quadrillion" number. This monster just got too big.

We currently are experiencing 2 different markets in mortgages. Jumbo rates are about a point higher than conventional rates. Advertised rates are different from available rates. Many applications are turned down for poor credit, others because the appraisals don't stand up, re-fi's for too little or negative equity. We have 2 different sets of interest rates. One being the government declared rates, the other being market rates. Guess which rate is more important? That's right, the EFFECTIVE rates used in the real world. Real world rates have not come down anywhere near as much as "Fed" rates. Also there is a total lack of liquidity where it is needed. If you need money, you can't get it. If you don't need it, it is plentiful.

I wrote back in June and July about the prospective credit crunch. I also wrote that "if you don't know what derivatives are, you will within 6-12 months". Well, derivatives have bankrupted the system. No ifs, ands, or buts. The situation is systemic. I do not profess to know the exact outcome, but I do know the world will look and feel completely different a year from now. The last six months we have seen denial, we have heard it was "contained", we heard "ok, now that the banks and brokers have taken writedowns the decks have been cleared". That was after the first round of writedowns, we heard it again after the second round. We are now in the third round of writedowns, and I submit the surface has not even been scratched. Nothing is being marked to market yet in the credit markets. All it would take is to have JUST ONE sector marked to market and we will witness panic. We have credit default swaps, CDO's, SIV's, interest rate derivatives, ARM corporates and municipals. And on and on. If just one sector were truly marked to market, the banking system will not survive 10 days. Possibly not 10 hours, meaning they won't open the next day. That is how serious this is. This will end in a panic that will put 1929 to shame. I say this because the system will change dramatically, whereas after 1929 it was all about getting back to the way it was before the crash. This time we cannot go back to the past, the currencies must change. They must be backed by something. I am not smart enough to know exactly what the aftermath will look like. I am smart enough to know that precious metals will serve as the foundation to money in some way shape or form. They have for some 5000 years. The opportunity to become a "charter" member of the next banking system is now. Either have wealth in real money or lose your wealth in today's' paper currencies! Regards, Bill H.

So...do you have/own some real money...i.e gold & silver? If not, you'd better call me and I'll go over with you some of the ways to position yourself for this environment.

Ron Paul Will Not Support John McCain

I saw this article this morning and let out a big cheer. Ron Paul will not be supporting John McCain for President. This is some of what he had to say...

Republican Rep. Ron Paul told the Tribune this morning he will not back Sen. John McCain as his party's nominee unless the Arizona senator "has a lot of change of heart."

"I can not support anybody with the foreign policy he advocates, you know, perpetual war. That is just so disturbing to me," Paul said.
"I think it's un-American, un-Constitutional, immoral, and not Republican."

Amen. John McCain has said that he wants America to be in Iraq for at least the next hundred years...and some people say that Ron Paul is nuts, LOL. This is a crazy idea.

I also know that this non-support of McCain, if he turns out to be the nominee, will not sit well with most of the GOP party bosses. They expect party loyalty until death do us part. Most people submit to these demands, but Ron Paul will not, it sounds like.

I can't support mcCain for other reasons. The war is a good reason, but for me it's our border policy and economic/montetary policy that are the deal killers for me with McCain.

Federal Prosecutors Release Some Mike Carona Tapes

This post is dedicated to all the Carona defenders out there in the OC GOP heirarchy. Today federal prosecutors released some transcripts of former Carona confidant Don Haidl speaking with Mike Carona about how they were going to obstruct justice and lie on the stand about all the cash gifts and bribes Haidl gave to Carona over the years. The word "damning" comes to my mind. Carona lawyers are going to work overtime to try and get this evidence suppressed you can bet. Without further ado, here's some of the conversations our former top law enforcement official has with Don Haidl...

On the tapes, prosecutors say, when discussing the cash payments, Carona tells Haidl that "unless there was a pinhole in your ceiling that evening" that he would falsely claim that he never got money from Haidl. "Pinhole," prosecutors say, referred to a hidden camera.

They didn't have a video pinhole Mike, but an audio pinhole that Haidl was wearing you jackass...let's continue our journey here...

"I'm OK getting up on the stand and saying that," Haidl tells Carona, according to the transcripts.

"It could be either one of us getting up on the stand and saying that," Carona responds.

Later in the conversation, prosecutors say, Haidl and Carona are discussing whether the government would be able to trace the cash payments. At that point, according to the transcripts, Haidl tells Carona that "as long as our stories are straight, I'm OK, as long as I know there's no trail anywhere."

"No trail anywhere," Carona responds.

"OK," Haidl says.

"Period," Carona responds.

"OK," Haidl repeats.

"Period. Period," Carona says. "In fact, not even close to being a trail."

These are just a few of the choice quotes from the filed brief. Read the whole thing here. Carona has quite the foul mouth when it comes to the English language.

Mitt Romney Taps Out

How appropriate that on a day when Mitt Romney drops out of the Presidential race, it's the first day of the Chinese New Year....the Year of the Rat! That fits John McCain to a tee. I expected Mitt to reassess his campaign after Super Tuesday, but I didn't expect him to surrender to John McCain so quick. I was knee deep trading the S&P when I got a call that Mitt had dropped out. I didn't believe it at first, but then I saw Mitt's mug on our piped in CNBC broadcast in the office and I knew it had to be for real. One of my first thoughts was that I'm bummed for my buddy Todd Cranney who works on the Romney campaign. He's out of a job now. He's a talented guy so I'm sure he'll hook up with another campaign or something political in nature.

The pundits want this race to be over, but Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are both staying in as of this moment. The voters in the rest of the states should get their opportunity to have their say before any corronations begin. As I said the other day, I will almost certainly not be supporting John McCain in the fall. There's really nothing he can say or anyone else can say to me that will convince me otherwise. This is a decision about policy for me and the direction of our country. Sometimes in politics, you have to accept half a loaf. With John McCain, Republicans are getting a crumb...and a bad tasting one at that. Sure many people who supported Romney will hold their nose and vote for McCain, but a lot of others will not by all the message boards I read this morning. As conservatives, we can't keep feeding the bears in the park(to coin a phase) and expect them to stay away from the campground. By voting for McCain, you're just sending the signal that all of his horrible policiy positions will be tolerated. I didn't vote for Arnold in 2006 and it proved to be one of the best decisions I've made. McCain will be a DC version of Arnold. If you want that, than go ahead and vote for him, but I'm not going to reinforce bad behavior.