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Thursday, October 13, 2005

You Heard It Here First....Bull Market In Real Estate Is Over

The heady days of real estate appreciation are over. In fact with the price action of the bellweather 30 year bond reaching a pyschologically important 6% level today, you can expect house inventories to go up for sure. There was a major break in the support level today doing significant technical damage on the charts. Fewer people will be able to qualify for a mortgage loan with the rising rates. Mortgage applications are also declining big time right now. On top of all this, you have a Presidential commision on tax reform floating trial balloons up of severely curtailing the amount of deductable mortgage interest expense. Take a look at some important housing stocks also like Fredie Mac and Fannie Mae. The charts do NOT look good. When you add all this up, you get the picture of a market that is done going up. How far will it go back down? I wish I knew the answer, but I do know when to say uncle. Lock in a good fixed rate now or be sorry later. I hope I am proven wrong on this prediction, but the evidence says otherwise.

2 Comments:

  • At 9:22 PM, Blogger Jeff Flint said…

    Gonna be hard for you to claim that you were the first to predict the end of real estate price escalation, Allan.

     
  • At 10:53 PM, Blogger Allan Bartlett said…

    Okay i might not be the very first person to go on record that that the RE market is over, but people to get a grip on themselves and realize that the huge runup in prices is unsustainable and a pullback in prices is at hand.

     

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