Powder Blue Report

News, finance, politics, sports, and fun from the west coast

Monday, August 02, 2004

Bush is Trending Higher in Futures Market

Take a look at this chart from Iowa Electronic Markets. As you can see, Bush saw his low water mark on the first day of the Democratic Convention where he was trading at 49%. At the end of trading today, he was at 54%. I keep harping on it, but this is in my opinion the most accurate indicator of sentiment out there.

Over at Intrade Presidential Futures, Bush is winning all the states that he won back in 2000 except for the state of New Hampshire. He is not winning any Gore states from 2000. Therefore if these numbers stand for the 2004 election, then Bush would win with 274 electoral votes. This is three more electoral votes than 2000 when Bush received just over the magical number and got 271 electoral votes. Thank you reapportionment.


Post a Comment

<< Home