Powder Blue Report

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Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Oh Yeah, There's An OC Special Election Tonight

I have taken a well needed break from political activity since the November elections. Thank God this special election for the 1st District Supervisor's seat wasn't in my area of the county. We've had enough special elections to last for a long time here the last few years. Anyways, tonights race is a fascinating look into the changing demographics of the county. You have two Vietnamese candidates in Trung & Janet Nguyen fighting it out for the Little Siagon vote. You have the old school white liberal Democrat in Tom Umberg. You have Carlos Bustamante trying to woo the hispanic vote and a few other fringe candidates that round out the list. The four I just mentioned will probably finish in the top four. There's evidence showing a good turnout in the Vietnamese community, but I think both candidates vying for those votes are going to split them. I don't think Carlos can overcome hispanic voter apathy nor compete for much of the Vietnamese vote. Carlos comes in fourth place IMO. The two Nguyens are canceling each other out and will finish in second(Janet) and thrid place(Trung). This leaves Tom Umberg as I originally predicted taking this seat and keeping it in the Democrat column. The fun(results) will begin shortly. Here's the link for the results below.

1st District Supervisor results

*********Absentee Update*********************

Trung & Janet Nguyen neck & neck in first & second place. Umberg in third & Carlos in fourth. The fat lady has sung Carlos. The question is...will this lead be enough to overcome the democratic precinct votes from Santa Ana. We saw this with the Daucher/Correa State Senate seat. A Republican took a big early lead in absentees only to have the lead withered down day by day as the count wore on. I get the hunch though that this race is now between the two Nguyens.


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