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Monday, November 06, 2006

My National Predictions For Tomorrow

I want to start with my national predictions for who I think will control Congress next year year. I'm taking my cue from Tradesports. Markets in general tend to be efficient, especially betting markets. A great example is how close the football handicappers get every week on the point spreads. It's scary sometimes how close they come to the outcome. Right now the chances for GOP control of the House is only at a 22 bid right now or 22% of retaining control. The Senate is a lot better at 76% chance of keeping GOP control(liberals still control the Senate though with all the RINOs supporting Dem. principles like amnesty, tax increases, etc). As far as numbers go, again I will take my cue from Tradesports. I will predict a 22 seat pickup for the Dems in the House and a five seat pickup for them in the Senate.

My hope is that our GOTV will limit the Dem gains in the House to around the 218-225 area. There has been rumblings that some current and newly elected conservative Dem House members will not vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. If that happens, look for both caucuses to scamble for party switchers or deals made to solidify the Speakership. It could be very interesting.

2 Comments:

  • At 11:14 AM, Blogger Chaz Lamrusco said…

    I just heard on KFI News that Arnold visited your Irvine GOP HQ.

    I hope you were there, Allan! I could just imagine what Arnold said when he entered the door.

    "Ya. Vhere is that girlie man, Allan Bartlett? He said he isn't going to wote for me. Im gunna kick his butt!"

    (hope you enjoyed the humor)

     
  • At 1:35 PM, Blogger Allan Bartlett said…

    I was just there and got to shake his hand. I didn't mention the fact though that I'm voting for the Libertarian Art Olivier! I'm working to to help the down ticket races like McClintock, Strickland, Poochigian, etc. My wife Lynn's picture might be in the LA Times tomorrow they said.

     

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