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Thursday, September 07, 2006

GOP Hopes Fade Of Holding The House

The spectre of a Democratically controlled House of Representatives is growing by the day. As I'm sitting here in my office wraping up a day of trading, I'm watching and listening to Larry Kudlow talk about the Tradesports contract for re-electing the GOP House at a 38 bid right now. For those of you in Santa Ana or Rio Linda, that means that there is only about a 38% chance right now that the GOP will keep its majority next term according to the people who are betting on this outcome happening. That is pathetic, but not wholly unexpected. We've gone through the reasons why the GOP has been squandering its majority rule and now the chickens are just coming home to roost so to speak. I hope those profligate spending, open borders, and disastrous monetary policies were worth it guys. You now have given a 62% chance of handing the Speakers gavel to Nancy Pelosi. Great job.

8 Comments:

  • At 4:17 PM, Blogger Dan Chmielewski said…

    There is no guarantee that even if the Democrats take control of the House that Nancy Pelosi will be speaker. And there's more to the country's displeasure with the Republican Party than you're leading on. The only thing the GOP is running on now is fear. And with the vast majority of the country against the war in Iraq and the vast majority fo the country not associating the War in Iraq with the War on Terror, fear isn't going to do it this time. I'
    mguessing Hugh Hewitt's lastest book will be in the remainders rack by Nov 9.

     
  • At 4:39 PM, Blogger Allan Bartlett said…

    The GOP Congress doesn't honestly deserve re-election in my mind. Having said that, people aren't exactly clamoring for Democratic control either. I suspect though that the voters are going to punish Republicans for the most part. I say good riddance to dead wood. BTW, what do Democrats have to offer besides their failed past policies Dan?

     
  • At 5:43 PM, Blogger Dan Chmielewski said…

    You mean the same failed policies that resulted in a booming economy, smaller government, welfare reform and a higher standard of living for all Americans? Here's a link to the party of ideas: http://democrats.senate.gov/agenda/

    Seems to me the failed policies are those of the Republicans. The War on Terror and th War in Iraq is not going well, our job growth (of good jobs at good wage) is not keeping pace with the needs of the population, more people have no health insurance, foreclosures and bankruptices are up, and of the 50+ Iraq War veterans running for Congress, 49 are running as Democrats. And you're wrong about voters not clamoring ofr Democratic control; a majority of voters prefer the Democrats to Republicans .. I point to this new Harris Poll.

    As the November midterm elections inch even closer, Democrats continue to hold a strong lead over Republicans in the generic election ballot for Congress. If the election were held today, 30 percent say they would vote for the Republican candidate while 45 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate—similar to last month, when 31 percent said they would vote Republican and 44 percent would vote Democratic.

    These are results from the latest Harris Poll of 1,009 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone between August 4 and 7, 2006 by Harris Interactive®.

    There does seem to be a gender gap in the race for Congress, but Republicans should not count on men being solidly in their voting bloc.

    While women favor the Democratic candidate by a wide margin of 22 percentage points (50% for the Democratic candidate vs. 28% for the Republican), men favor the Democratic candidate, but by a smaller margin of seven percentage points (40% for the Democrat candidate vs. 33% for the Republican).
    In relation to political ideology, one might expect Republicans to have a large share of the conservative vote, though these results show that may not be the case.

    Half (50%) of conservatives say they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election for Congress were held today, compared to one-third (32%) of conservatives who would vote for the Democratic candidate.
    Liberals are holding more true to their core as more than two-thirds (68%) of them would vote for the Democratic candidate, and only five percent say they would vote Republican.
    The Moderate voters also appear to be having their affect on the results, as half of them (52%) say they would vote for the Democratic candidate while just one-quarter (24%) are voting for the Republican.
    Party is more telling than ideology.

    Eight in ten (81%) Republicans say they would vote Republican and 87 percent of Democrats say they would vote Democratic.
    However, only one-quarter (25%) of independents say they would vote for the Republican candidate while over one-third (37%) would vote for the Democrat.
    As their name implies, three in ten (29%) independents say they are voting for neither Republican nor Democratic, but for the other candidate in the race.

     
  • At 6:28 PM, Blogger Allan Bartlett said…

    I will admit that that war fatigue has set in on the electorate and Democrats are poised to reap a big windfall off of it in November. My bone of contention with this war in Iraq is that I knew from the start that the printing presses at the Mint would have to work overtime to inflate the necessary dollars to finance the war. I hate being proved correct. This country needs a timeout from wars for the next century or two.

     
  • At 9:16 PM, Blogger Dan Chmielewski said…

    Allen -- it's the first war in our history where taxes were not raised to finance it and indeed, the first war were taxes were cut. The deficit soared to near record levels. Generals who disagree with the brass are retired. The Bush administration just yesterday acknowledged the secret CIA prisons for terrorism suspects; NSA spying, financial transaction monitoring above and beyond terrorist surveillance, outing a CIA operative working on Iran's nuclear program...its more than war fatigue. And despite what the talks shoes say, the Democrats do have plans on security, the war of terrorism, economic policies, but most of the right wingers are just going to accept talk radio talking points without any sort of critical analysis. We actually agree on the ipact of the war.

     
  • At 6:47 PM, Blogger John said…

    You're an idiot. Hove you been to Rio Linda? Do you know where Rio Linda is? Do you anyone from Rio Linda? Then shut your fucking pie-hole.

    Why don't you make an attempt at original thought rather than being another Limbaugh parrot.

     
  • At 6:56 PM, Blogger Allan Bartlett said…

    Actually yes I have been to Rio Linda. It's a shithole part of the city up in Sacramento. I have family that have lived up in the Sacramento area for over thirty years and they will vouch for the fact that the city is ghetto.

     
  • At 1:32 PM, Blogger Dan Chmielewski said…

    John -- respectful debate here please. Allen and I disagree on many things, but have some personal integrity not to get into name-calling. There is absolutely no need to make any arguement personal. And try to use language here you wouldn't mind having your mother read.

     

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